Demócratas: Edward avanza !!!!

Según el Rasmussen Report más reciente Clinton ha bajado, mientras Obama y EDWARD suben en IOWA. Aqui el reporte (espero no haber dejado escapar mi simpatía por Edward)

Senator Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa has fallen seven points over the past few weeks. This is consistent with the six-point slide measured in New Hampshire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 finds Clinton on top with support from 29% of Likely Caucus Participants. That’s down from 33% in mid-October.
Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is supported by 25% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama attracts 24% of the Likely Caucus participants. For both men, those figures reflect a three-percentage point gain. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson also gained three points and is now at 10% in the poll (see crosstabs).

Edwards now attracts 26% support from men while Clinton and Obama each earn the support from 24%. In the previous survey, Clinton had a four-point advantage over Edwards among male voters. Among women, Clinton is still on top, but her share of the women’s vote has declined from 39% in mid-October until now.

There are many challenges to polling a caucus, primarily around the question of who will actually participate. Those challenges are magnified this year by the timing of the caucus on January 3 forcing candidates and their teams to explore tactful methods of contacting voters during the holiday season. When only voters who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, the race is a dead-heat: 26% for Clinton, 26% for Edwards, and 26% for Obama (see discussion of methodology).

Half of the Likely Caucus Participants say they could change their mind between now and January 3. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Clinton’s supporters say they are “certain” they will vote for her. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Edwards voters say the same while 45% of Obama’s supporters are that certain.

Among those voters who say they might change their mind, there is no clear benefit to any of the top three candidates. Obama supporters who might change their mind are fairly evenly divided on their second choice between Edwards and Clinton. Edwards supporters who might change their mind are similarly divided between Obama and Clinton. And the same pattern holds true for Clinton supporters who might change their mind—they are primarily split between Edwards and Obama. Given the high numbers of voters who say they could change their mind, the race in Iowa remains very fluid.

Nationally, Clinton has a commanding lead in the polls but the race has become a tale of two narratives. In one narrative, Clinton is leading everywhere and in the other her lead is declining. Both narratives have the virtue of being true and they will collide in Iowa. If Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, she will be a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination. It is not so clear what happens if someone else wins in Iowa (and much will depend upon the margin of victory).

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Likely Caucus Participants have a favorable opinion of Edwards, 81% say the same about Obama, and 79% offer a positive assessment of Clinton. Richardson by 62%, and Biden by 52% and Dennis Kucinich by 34%

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Likely Democratic Caucus Participants say that when police officers pull someone over for a traffic violation, they should routinely check to see if that person is in the country legally. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree while 15% are not sure.

Forty-eight percent (48%) believe that if an illegal immigrant is discovered in this manner, they should be deported. Twenty-six percent (26%) disagree.

Forty-seven (47%) believe that this approach might create a temptation for police officers to discriminate while 41% disagree. All of these responses are somewhat similar to the views of Democrats nationwide.

Twenty-one percent (21%) believe undocumented workers should be allowed to get drivers licenses. Sixty-five percent (65%) disagree. Nationwide, 77% of all voters oppose drivers licenses for undocumented workers. Public opposition recently forced New York Governor Elliot Spitzer to drop his proposal for making licenses available to undocumented immigrants. (see video)

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, all showed Clinton losing a little ground compared to the prior survey.